Quick answer
Multiply every open junk removal estimate by its realistic current win probability. Repeat with the expected probability after an appropriate follow-up. The difference is recovered expected revenue—not guaranteed sales.
Worked estimate example
A $1,350 cleanout estimate has a current win probability of 24% and a follow-up scenario of 42%.
Follow-up EV: $1,350 × 42% = $567.00
Recovered expected revenue: $243.00
Convert recovered revenue to contribution
If direct delivery cost is 44%, the recovered revenue retains 56% before follow-up cost. With an $8 follow-up allowance, incremental contribution is $128.08.
Use probability carefully
Probability is a scenario input. Base it on comparable historical estimates when possible. Do not increase it simply because the quote is large or important.
Build a review queue
Quote age helps surface work, but it should not be the only priority. Combine age with stated customer timing, responsiveness, job fit, value and whether a decision date was agreed.
Respect the customer
A useful follow-up process is timely and relevant. Record the last contact, the promised next step and communication preference. Stop when the customer declines or asks not to be contacted.
Frequently asked questions
What is expected revenue from an open estimate?
Expected revenue is the quote value multiplied by the estimated probability that the customer accepts it. It is a planning value, not guaranteed revenue.
How is lost quote revenue different from lost profit?
Revenue is the customer price. Profit also subtracts labor, vehicle, disposal, supplies, payment and overhead costs, so recovered revenue must be adjusted for delivery cost.
When should a junk removal estimate be followed up?
Use the decision timeline discussed with the customer. When none exists, create a consistent review schedule based on quote age and intent while respecting communication preferences.