How to estimate lost revenue from open junk removal quotes
Multiply each quote by its current win probability to estimate current expected revenue. Repeat with the estimated probability after a reasonable follow-up, then subtract the two totals.
Use expected value for planning
An open $1,000 quote with a 30% estimated chance of acceptance contributes $300 of expected pipeline revenue. It is not a prediction that the business will collect exactly $300.
Subtract delivery and follow-up cost
Recovered revenue is not recovered profit. Apply the direct job cost percentage and subtract the cost of completing follow-up work.
Prioritize without spamming
Age is one signal. Customer intent, job fit, requested timeline and communication preference should also shape the follow-up queue.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate expected revenue from open junk removal estimates?
Multiply each open estimate value by its realistic probability of being accepted, then add the expected values across all open estimates.
How do I estimate revenue recovered by quote follow-up?
Subtract the current close probability from the expected probability after follow-up, then multiply that percentage-point improvement by the quote value.
Should every open junk removal quote receive the same follow-up?
No. Prioritize estimates using customer intent, quote age, job fit, value and whether the prospect asked for a decision timeline. Respect communication preferences and avoid treating model probabilities as guarantees.